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NFL 2025 Season Week 1

ARI hold off NO 20-13

ARI held off NO 20-13. ARI scored on 3/3 red zone trips (100%) vs NO's 3/4 (75%). The defining moment: ARI pass (Q2, 32:07).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: ARI pass (Q2, 32:07) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: ARI scored on 3/3 red zone trips (100%) vs NO's 3/4 (75%) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: NO failed on 9/14 third downs (36% conversion rate) why loser lost

ARI held off NO 20-13. ARI scored on 3/3 red zone trips (100%) vs NO's 3/4 (75%).

The defining moment: ARI pass (Q2, 32:07).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

ARI pass (Q2, 32:07). ARI's win probability jumped from 43.8% to 57.8% — a 14.0 percentage point swing.

A key completion sustained the drive while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

ARI 10-play, 71-yard drive (4:30) ending in touchdown (Q2, 04:58). ARI's win probability moved from 44.4% to 67.3% — a 23.0 percentage point shift over 10 plays.

ARI took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.140): (2:07) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to NO 20 for 25 yards (23-J.Blackmon; Key play (WPA +0.069): (:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 6-J.Conner for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Key play (WPA +0.061): (4:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to ARI 40 for 11 yards (20-P.Werner).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A competitive game with 3 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to ARI, who lost 33.4 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why ARI Won

ARI won 20-13 on the strength of 5 key factors: • ARI scored on 3/3 red zone trips (100%) vs NO's 3/4 (75%) • ARI had 3 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs NO's 1 • ARI generated +2.7 EPA (+0.044 per play) vs NO's -2.8 EPA (-0.042 per play).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for NO

NO lost 13-20. What went wrong: • NO failed on 9/14 third downs (36% conversion rate) • NO failed to score on 1 of 4 red zone trips (75% scoring rate) • NO had only 1 explosive play (20+ yards) vs ARI's 3.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: ARI 10-play, 71-yard drive (4:30) ending in touchdown (Q2, 04:58). The moment that decided it: ARI pass (Q2, 32:07).

Final score: ARI 20-13.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

ARI Play #1928 Drive #7 red zone efficiency explosive plays epa advantage third down failures red zone failures lack of explosiveness

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.