Sweden

France have scored 16 goals — and conceded just 4 — across seven matches, yet their first tournament defeat to Spain exposed a finishing vulnerability that England may look to exploit. England have won five of seven, with Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane sharing 12 goals between them, but conceded eight times — twice as many as France. Both teams score heavily from the second half onward. Both arrive wounded. Sportami identifies the patterns that will shape the World Cup's third-place playoff.

France are unbeaten with six wins. Spain are unbeaten with five wins and a draw. Identical shot volumes. Opposite scoring rhythms. France's shot production has increased through the knockout rounds while their finishing efficiency has declined. Spain, meanwhile, have directed a much larger share of their attempts on target. Sportami computes the patterns traditional previews rarely uncover.

France's 3-0 victory over Sweden is defined by their possession dominance, which allowed them to control the match and limit Sweden's opportunities. The turning point arrives at the 45th minute when Kylian Mbappé scores, setting the tone for the second half. France's 12-3 advantage in shots on target underscores their offensive control.

Paraguay pull off a stunning World Cup upset, eliminating Germany on penalties after a 1-1 draw in the Round of 32. Despite Germany's 75% possession dominance, Julio Enciso's 42nd-minute opener for Paraguay forced the favorites onto the back foot. Kai Havertz equalized in the 54th minute, but neither side could find a winner through extra time. Paraguay held their nerve in the shootout, converting 4 of their penalties while Germany missed one, sending the South Americans through to face the winner of France vs Sweden in the Round of 16.

Japan and Sweden share the spoils in a contested 1-1 draw, with Daizen Maeda's 56th-minute goal giving Japan a brief lead. Despite Japan's slight edge in shots, Sweden equalizes, underscoring the evenly matched nature of the encounter. The match's DNA is defined by balanced opportunities and a resilient Swedish response.

In a dramatic encounter, the Netherlands and Japan draw 2-2, with late-game tension defining the match. Virgil van Dijk's goal in the 51st minute gives the Netherlands a lead, but Japan's resilience culminates in a late equalizer. The Netherlands' 60% possession underscores their territorial control, yet Japan's persistence ensures a shared result.

The Netherlands secure a dominant 5-1 victory over Sweden, with Brian Brobbey's early goal in the 5th minute setting the tone for control. Despite Sweden's 16 shots, the Dutch effectively manage the game, capitalizing on their chances to maintain a commanding lead throughout. This performance underscores the Netherlands' ability to dictate play and convert opportunities efficiently.

Sweden secures a dominant 5-1 victory over Tunisia, establishing control early with Yasin Ayari's goal in the 7th minute. Sweden's offensive prowess is evident with a 7-2 advantage in shots on target, allowing them to dictate the match's tempo and territory, leaving Tunisia struggling to respond effectively.