TB survive SEA scare, win 38-35 after late interception
TB edged SEA 38-35. TB had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs SEA's -2. The defining moment: S.Darnold intercepted (Q4, 0:58).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: S.Darnold intercepted (Q4, 0:58) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: TB had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs SEA's -2 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: SEA's defense allowed TB to score on 7/10 drives (70%) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 6 lead changes momentum timeline
TB edged SEA 38-35. TB had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs SEA's -2.
The defining moment: S.Darnold intercepted (Q4, 0:58).
⚡ The Turning Point
S.Darnold intercepted (Q4, 0:58). SEA's win probability dropped from 67.6% to 27.4% — a 40.2 percentage point swing.
Gave TB the ball and ended SEA's threat while tied late.
🏈 Drive of the Game
SEA 8-play, 99-yard drive (4:02) ending in touchdown (Q4, 07:20). SEA's win probability moved from 51.8% to 86.7% — a 34.9 percentage point shift over 8 plays.
SEA took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.251): (3:25) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 15-T.Horton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.103): (5:19) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to TB 44 for 22 yards (8-S.Dennis). PENAL Key play (WPA -0.072): (3:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Kupp (23-T.Smith).
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 6 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to TB, who lost 46.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 40.2 percentage points, caused by a interception.
✅ Why TB Won
TB won 38-35 on the strength of 2 key factors: • TB had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs SEA's -2 • TB scored on 7/10 drives (70%) vs SEA's 5/9 (56%).
❌ What Went Wrong for SEA
SEA lost 35-38. What went wrong: • SEA's defense allowed TB to score on 7/10 drives (70%) • SEA committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost) • SEA forced only 0 turnovers while TB forced 2.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: SEA 8-play, 99-yard drive (4:02) ending in touchdown (Q4, 07:20). The moment that decided it: S.Darnold intercepted (Q4, 0:58).
Final score: TB 38-35.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.