SF hold off PHI 23-19
SF held off PHI 23-19. SF converted 6/10 third downs (60%) vs PHI's 5/16 (31%). The defining moment: PHI fails on 4th down (Q4, 0:43).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: PHI fails on 4th down (Q4, 0:43) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: SF converted 6/10 third downs (60%) vs PHI's 5/16 (31%) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: PHI failed on 11/16 third downs (31% conversion rate) why loser lost
SF held off PHI 23-19. SF converted 6/10 third downs (60%) vs PHI's 5/16 (31%).
The defining moment: PHI fails on 4th down (Q4, 0:43).
⚡ The Turning Point
PHI fails on 4th down (Q4, 0:43). PHI's win probability dropped from 33.6% to 3.6% — a 29.9 percentage point swing.
Ended the drive and handed field position to SF while trailing by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
SF 10-play, 66-yard drive (5:06) ending in touchdown (Q4, 08:00). SF's win probability moved from 40.4% to 71.6% — a 31.2 percentage point shift over 10 plays.
SF took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.145): (2:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.063): (6:34) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 5-D.Robinson to PHI 40 for 16 yards (8-A.Jackson). Key play (WPA +0.059): (4:32) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to PHI 10 for 10 yards (94-B.Young; 32-R.Blankenship).
📈 Game Flow
A back-and-forth battle with 3 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to SF, who lost 34.3 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 29.9 percentage points, caused by a play sequence.
✅ Why SF Won
SF won 23-19 on the strength of 4 key factors: • SF converted 6/10 third downs (60%) vs PHI's 5/16 (31%) • SF passing EPA: +8.0 vs PHI: -3.2 • SF generated +5.7 EPA (+0.104 per play) vs PHI's -3.0 EPA (-0.041 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for PHI
PHI lost 19-23. What went wrong: • PHI failed on 11/16 third downs (31% conversion rate).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: SF 10-play, 66-yard drive (5:06) ending in touchdown (Q4, 08:00). The moment that decided it: PHI fails on 4th down (Q4, 0:43).
Final score: SF 23-19.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.