Skip to content
Sportami home
NFL 2025 Season Week 4
SEA hold off ARI, win 23-20 on late field goal

SEA hold off ARI, win 23-20 on late field goal

SEA edged ARI 23-20. SEA had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs ARI's -3. The defining moment: SEA 52-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: SEA 52-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: SEA had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs ARI's -3 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: ARI committed 3 turnovers (2 INTs, 1 fumble lost) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: volatile contest with 3 lead changes momentum timeline

SEA edged ARI 23-20. SEA had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs ARI's -3.

The defining moment: SEA 52-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

SEA 52-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04). SEA's win probability jumped from 70.0% to 100.0% — a 30.0 percentage point swing.

Points on the board while tied late.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

ARI 12-play, 57-yard drive (2:48) ending in touchdown (Q4, 03:16). ARI's win probability moved from 18.3% to 47.8% — a 29.5 percentage point shift over 12 plays.

ARI tied the game after trailing. Key play (WPA +0.195): (:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-E.Demercado for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Key play (WPA +0.121): (3:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SEA 46 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe). Key play (WPA +0.115): (1:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 18-M.Harrison to SEA 7 for 18 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a volatile contest with 3 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to SEA, who lost 28.6 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 30.0 percentage points, caused by a field goal.

momentum timeline

✅ Why SEA Won

SEA won 23-20 on the strength of 5 key factors: • SEA had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs ARI's -3 • SEA had 7 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs ARI's 1 • SEA passing EPA: +9.9 vs ARI: -3.3.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for ARI

ARI lost 20-23. What went wrong: • ARI committed 3 turnovers (2 INTs, 1 fumble lost) • ARI failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) • ARI had only 1 explosive play (20+ yards) vs SEA's 7.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: ARI 12-play, 57-yard drive (2:48) ending in touchdown (Q4, 03:16). The moment that decided it: SEA 52-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).

Final score: SEA 23-20.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

SEA Play #4490 Drive #20 turnover margin explosive plays passing advantage turnovers committed third down failures lack of explosiveness

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.