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NFL 2025 Season Week 16
PIT outlast DET 29-24 after 2 lead changes

PIT outlast DET 29-24 after 2 lead changes

PIT held off DET 29-24. PIT rushing EPA: +8.7 vs DET: -4.0. The defining moment: DET penalty (Q4, 0:08).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: DET penalty (Q4, 0:08) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: PIT rushing EPA: +8.7 vs DET: -4.0 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: DET failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: volatile contest with 2 lead changes momentum timeline

PIT held off DET 29-24. PIT rushing EPA: +8.7 vs DET: -4.0.

The defining moment: DET penalty (Q4, 0:08).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

DET penalty (Q4, 0:08). DET's win probability dropped from 31.3% to 0.0% — a 31.3 percentage point swing.

A penalty changed the situation while trailing by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

PIT 11-play, 80-yard drive (1:53) ending in touchdown (Q2, 01:55). PIT's win probability moved from 28.0% to 46.3% — a 18.2 percentage point shift over 11 plays.

PIT tied the game after trailing. Key play (WPA +0.163): (:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 14-K.Gainwell for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Reader].

Key play (WPA +0.062): (:27) (No Huddle) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 16-A.Thielen to DET 45 for 13 yards (12-T.Harper).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a volatile contest with 2 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to PIT, who lost 31.6 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 31.3 percentage points, caused by a penalty.

momentum timeline

✅ Why PIT Won

PIT won 29-24 on the strength of 3 key factors: • PIT rushing EPA: +8.7 vs DET: -4.0 • PIT generated +14.8 EPA (+0.212 per play) vs DET's +6.9 EPA (+0.101 per play) • PIT converted 8/16 third downs (50%) vs DET's 6/15 (40%).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for DET

DET lost 24-29. What went wrong: • DET failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) • DET failed to score on 2 of 4 red zone trips (50% scoring rate) • DET's defense allowed PIT to score on 5/10 drives (50%).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: PIT 11-play, 80-yard drive (1:53) ending in touchdown (Q2, 01:55). The moment that decided it: DET penalty (Q4, 0:08).

Final score: PIT 29-24.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

PIT Play #4913 Drive #10 rushing advantage epa advantage third down efficiency third down failures red zone failures defensive leakage

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.