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NFL 2025 Season Week 14
PIT hold off BAL 27-22

PIT hold off BAL 27-22

PIT held off BAL 27-22. PIT passing EPA: +10.6 vs BAL: -4.8. The defining moment: L.Jackson sacked (Q4, 0:09).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: L.Jackson sacked (Q4, 0:09) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: PIT passing EPA: +10.6 vs BAL: -4.8 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: BAL failed on 11/18 third downs (39% conversion rate) why loser lost

PIT held off BAL 27-22. PIT passing EPA: +10.6 vs BAL: -4.8.

The defining moment: L.Jackson sacked (Q4, 0:09).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

L.Jackson sacked (Q4, 0:09). BAL's win probability dropped from 27.0% to 0.0% — a 27.0 percentage point swing.

Disrupted the drive while trailing by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

PIT 8-play, 65-yard drive (3:45) ending in touchdown (Q1, 10:58). PIT's win probability moved from 39.3% to 60.4% — a 21.2 percentage point shift over 8 plays.

PIT took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.115): (10:52) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 4-D.Metcalf to BAL 13 for 52 yards (12-A.Gilman).

Key play (WPA +0.056): (8:46) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward left guard to BAL 2 for 2 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

Key play (WPA +0.054): (7:19) 8-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to PIT, who lost 23.5 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 27.0 percentage points, caused by a sack.

momentum timeline

✅ Why PIT Won

PIT won 27-22 on the strength of 5 key factors: • PIT passing EPA: +10.6 vs BAL: -4.8 • PIT generated +13.4 EPA (+0.269 per play) vs BAL's +1.0 EPA (+0.013 per play) • PIT had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs BAL's -1.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for BAL

BAL lost 22-27. What went wrong: • BAL failed on 11/18 third downs (39% conversion rate) • BAL's defense allowed PIT to score on 5/10 drives (50%) • BAL committed 1 turnover (1 INT, 0 fumbles lost).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: PIT 8-play, 65-yard drive (3:45) ending in touchdown (Q1, 10:58). The moment that decided it: L.Jackson sacked (Q4, 0:09).

Final score: PIT 27-22.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

PIT Play #4539 Drive #2 passing advantage epa advantage turnover margin third down failures defensive leakage turnovers committed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.