PHI capitalize on GB fumble to win 10-7
PHI edged GB 10-7. PHI passing EPA: +8.5 vs GB: -8.1. The defining moment: J.Jacobs fumble lost (Q4, 1:30).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: J.Jacobs fumble lost (Q4, 1:30) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: PHI passing EPA: +8.5 vs GB: -8.1 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: GB failed on 8/13 third downs (38% conversion rate) why loser lost
PHI edged GB 10-7. PHI passing EPA: +8.5 vs GB: -8.1.
The defining moment: J.Jacobs fumble lost (Q4, 1:30).
⚡ The Turning Point
J.Jacobs fumble lost (Q4, 1:30). GB's win probability dropped from 27.9% to 5.1% — a 22.8 percentage point swing.
Turnover gave PHI possession while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
PHI 4-play, 80-yard drive (2:11) ending in touchdown (Q4, 12:46). PHI's win probability moved from 66.0% to 87.6% — a 21.6 percentage point shift over 4 plays.
PHI extended their lead with a scoring drive. Key play (WPA +0.141): (11:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 26-S.Barkley to GB 36 for 41 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Key play (WPA +0.107): (10:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
📈 Game Flow
A back-and-forth battle with 4 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to PHI, who lost 27.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 22.8 percentage points, caused by a fumble.
✅ Why PHI Won
PHI won 10-7 on the strength of 5 key factors: • PHI passing EPA: +8.5 vs GB: -8.1 • PHI had a +1 turnover margin (2 forced, 1 committed) vs GB's -1 • PHI generated 3 sacks and 8 QB hits vs GB's 0 sacks and 0 QB hits.
❌ What Went Wrong for GB
GB lost 7-10. What went wrong: • GB failed on 8/13 third downs (38% conversion rate) • GB committed 2 turnovers (0 INTs, 2 fumbles lost) • GB generated -11.2 EPA (-0.173 per play).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: PHI 4-play, 80-yard drive (2:11) ending in touchdown (Q4, 12:46). The moment that decided it: J.Jacobs fumble lost (Q4, 1:30).
Final score: PHI 10-7.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.