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NFL 2025 Season Week 15

JAX rout NYJ 48-20

JAX dominated NYJ 48-20. JAX generated +18.3 EPA (+0.327 per play) vs NYJ's -10.7 EPA (-0.157 per play).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: NYJ fails on 4th down (Q1, 53:49) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: JAX generated +18.3 EPA (+0.327 per play) vs NYJ's -10.7 EPA (-0.157 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: NYJ committed 3 turnovers (3 INTs, 0 fumbles lost) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: one-sided — the winner controlled throughout momentum timeline

JAX dominated NYJ 48-20. JAX generated +18.3 EPA (+0.327 per play) vs NYJ's -10.7 EPA (-0.157 per play).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

NYJ fails on 4th down (Q1, 53:49). NYJ's win probability dropped from 28.3% to 20.2% — a 8.1 percentage point swing.

Ended the drive and handed field position to JAX while trailing by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

JAX 9-play, 72-yard drive (4:42) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). JAX's win probability moved from 54.6% to 69.9% — a 15.3 percentage point shift over 9 plays.

JAX took the lead for the first time on this drive.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a one-sided affair. The winning team controlled the game from start to finish.

The longest sustained momentum belonged to JAX, who gained 26.6 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why JAX Won

JAX won 48-20 on the strength of 5 key factors: • JAX generated +18.3 EPA (+0.327 per play) vs NYJ's -10.7 EPA (-0.157 per play) • JAX passing EPA: +23.8 vs NYJ: -7.8 • JAX had a +2 turnover margin (3 forced, 1 committed) vs NYJ's -2.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for NYJ

NYJ lost 20-48. What went wrong: • NYJ committed 3 turnovers (3 INTs, 0 fumbles lost) • NYJ's defense allowed JAX to score on 8/12 drives (67%) • NYJ generated -10.7 EPA (-0.157 per play).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: JAX 9-play, 72-yard drive (4:42) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). The moment that decided it: NYJ fails on 4th down (Q1, 53:49).

Final score: JAX 48-20.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

JAX Play #395 Drive #1 epa advantage passing advantage turnover margin turnovers committed defensive leakage offensive inefficiency

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.