NO hold off TB 24-20
NO held off TB 24-20. NO generated +1.0 EPA (+0.018 per play) vs TB's -12.3 EPA (-0.178 per play). The defining moment: T.Shough 13-yard rushing TD (Q4, 8:34).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: T.Shough 13-yard rushing TD (Q4, 8:34) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: NO generated +1.0 EPA (+0.018 per play) vs TB's -12.3 EPA (-0.178 per play) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: TB failed on 10/13 third downs (23% conversion rate) why loser lost
NO held off TB 24-20. NO generated +1.0 EPA (+0.018 per play) vs TB's -12.3 EPA (-0.178 per play).
The defining moment: T.Shough 13-yard rushing TD (Q4, 8:34).
⚡ The Turning Point
T.Shough 13-yard rushing TD (Q4, 8:34). NO's win probability jumped from 63.4% to 81.5% — a 18.1 percentage point swing.
Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while tied game.
🏈 Drive of the Game
NO 9-play, 53-yard drive (4:22) ending in touchdown (Q4, 12:48). NO's win probability moved from 51.5% to 81.7% — a 30.2 percentage point shift over 9 plays.
NO took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.181): (8:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.117): (12:10) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave to TB 41 for 12 yards (8-S.Dennis). Key play (WPA +0.091): (9:03) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 24-D.Neal pushed ob at TB 13 for 14 yards (31-A.Winf.
📈 Game Flow
A back-and-forth battle with 4 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to NO, who lost 34.4 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 18.1 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.
✅ Why NO Won
NO won 24-20 on the strength of 3 key factors: • NO generated +1.0 EPA (+0.018 per play) vs TB's -12.3 EPA (-0.178 per play) • NO passing EPA: +1.8 vs TB: -9.8 • NO converted 5/11 third downs (46%) vs TB's 3/13 (23%).
❌ What Went Wrong for TB
TB lost 20-24. What went wrong: • TB failed on 10/13 third downs (23% conversion rate) • TB generated -12.3 EPA (-0.178 per play) • TB passing attack generated -9.8 EPA.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: NO 9-play, 53-yard drive (4:22) ending in touchdown (Q4, 12:48). The moment that decided it: T.Shough 13-yard rushing TD (Q4, 8:34).
Final score: NO 24-20.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.