NE hold off CIN 26-20
NE held off CIN 26-20. NE passing EPA: +6.8 vs CIN: -13.4. The defining moment: J.Flacco intercepted (Q2, 37:51).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: J.Flacco intercepted (Q2, 37:51) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: NE passing EPA: +6.8 vs CIN: -13.4 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: CIN failed on 10/13 third downs (23% conversion rate) why loser lost
NE held off CIN 26-20. NE passing EPA: +6.8 vs CIN: -13.4.
The defining moment: J.Flacco intercepted (Q2, 37:51).
⚡ The Turning Point
J.Flacco intercepted (Q2, 37:51). CIN's win probability dropped from 73.4% to 45.2% — a 28.2 percentage point swing.
Gave NE the ball and ended CIN's threat while leading by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
CIN 4-play, 0-yard drive (1:54) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q2, 09:36). CIN's win probability moved from 71.9% to 55.1% — a 26.3 percentage point shift over 4 plays.
CIN's drive ended in a turnover that was returned for a touchdown by the opponent. Key play (WPA -0.282): (7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33.
25.
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to NE, who lost 41.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 28.2 percentage points, caused by a interception.
✅ Why NE Won
NE won 26-20 on the strength of 5 key factors: • NE passing EPA: +6.8 vs CIN: -13.4 • NE had 5 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs CIN's 1 • NE generated +0.2 EPA (+0.004 per play) vs CIN's -11.8 EPA (-0.193 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for CIN
CIN lost 20-26. What went wrong: • CIN failed on 10/13 third downs (23% conversion rate) • CIN's defense allowed NE to score on 6/10 drives (60%) • CIN passing attack generated -13.4 EPA.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: CIN 4-play, 0-yard drive (1:54) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q2, 09:36). The moment that decided it: J.Flacco intercepted (Q2, 37:51).
Final score: NE 26-20.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.