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NFL 2025 Season Week 15

PIT defeat MIA 28-15

PIT defeated MIA 28-15. PIT generated +13.8 EPA (+0.223 per play) vs MIA's -2.0 EPA (-0.040 per play). The defining moment: T.Tagovailoa intercepted (Q1, 53:01).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: T.Tagovailoa intercepted (Q1, 53:01) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: PIT generated +13.8 EPA (+0.223 per play) vs MIA's -2.0 EPA (-0.040 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: MIA failed on 6/8 third downs (25% conversion rate) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: one-sided — the winner controlled throughout momentum timeline

PIT defeated MIA 28-15. PIT generated +13.8 EPA (+0.223 per play) vs MIA's -2.0 EPA (-0.040 per play).

The defining moment: T.Tagovailoa intercepted (Q1, 53:01).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

T.Tagovailoa intercepted (Q1, 53:01). MIA's win probability dropped from 51.2% to 39.4% — a 11.8 percentage point swing.

Gave PIT the ball and ended MIA's threat while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

PIT 12-play, 60-yard drive (4:54) ending in touchdown (Q2, 05:11). PIT's win probability moved from 49.3% to 71.4% — a 22.1 percentage point shift over 12 plays.

PIT took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.088): (:21) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward.

83-Co.Heyward right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Key play (WPA +0.056): (3:47) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington pushed ob at MIA 34 for 13 yards (2.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a one-sided affair. The winning team controlled the game from start to finish.

The longest sustained momentum belonged to PIT, who gained 29.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why PIT Won

PIT won 28-15 on the strength of 5 key factors: • PIT generated +13.8 EPA (+0.223 per play) vs MIA's -2.0 EPA (-0.040 per play) • PIT had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs MIA's -1 • PIT rushing EPA: +2.7 vs MIA: -4.7.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for MIA

MIA lost 15-28. What went wrong: • MIA failed on 6/8 third downs (25% conversion rate) • MIA allowed 4 sacks • MIA committed 1 turnover (1 INT, 0 fumbles lost).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: PIT 12-play, 60-yard drive (4:54) ending in touchdown (Q2, 05:11). The moment that decided it: T.Tagovailoa intercepted (Q1, 53:01).

Final score: PIT 28-15.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

PIT Play #373 Drive #8 epa advantage turnover margin rushing advantage third down failures pressure allowed turnovers committed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.