LV hold off NE 20-13
LV held off NE 20-13. LV had 9 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs NE's 3. The defining moment: NE penalty (Q2, 34:05).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: NE penalty (Q2, 34:05) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: LV had 9 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs NE's 3 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: NE failed on 10/14 third downs (29% conversion rate) why loser lost
LV held off NE 20-13. LV had 9 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs NE's 3.
The defining moment: NE penalty (Q2, 34:05).
⚡ The Turning Point
NE penalty (Q2, 34:05). NE's win probability jumped from 58.0% to 70.0% — a 12.0 percentage point swing.
A penalty changed the situation while tied game.
🏈 Drive of the Game
LV 5-play, 71-yard drive (2:35) ending in touchdown (Q3, 12:14). LV's win probability moved from 37.3% to 61.4% — a 24.1 percentage point shift over 5 plays.
LV took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.086): (11:34) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 29 for 19 yards (28-A.Austin, 23-K.Dugger).
Key play (WPA +0.065): (12:14) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers to NE 48 for 23 yards (31-C.Woodson; 7-C.Davis).
📈 Game Flow
A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to LV, who lost 38.8 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
✅ Why LV Won
LV won 20-13 on the strength of 5 key factors: • LV had 9 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs NE's 3 • LV passing EPA: +14.2 vs NE: -0.3 • LV generated +6.9 EPA (+0.115 per play) vs NE's -4.5 EPA (-0.066 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for NE
NE lost 13-20. What went wrong: • NE failed on 10/14 third downs (29% conversion rate) • NE allowed 4 sacks • NE went three-and-out 4 times, failing to sustain drives.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: LV 5-play, 71-yard drive (2:35) ending in touchdown (Q3, 12:14). The moment that decided it: NE penalty (Q2, 34:05).
Final score: LV 20-13.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.