Skip to content
Sportami home
NFL 2025 Season Week 16

LAC pull away from DAL 34-17

LAC pulled away from DAL 34-17. LAC generated +27.2 EPA (+0.446 per play) vs DAL's +1.9 EPA (+0.034 per play).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: Q.Johnston 50-yard gain (Q3, 29:13) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: LAC generated +27.2 EPA (+0.446 per play) vs DAL's +1.9 EPA (+0.034 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: DAL's defense allowed LAC to score on 6/8 drives (75%) why loser lost

LAC pulled away from DAL 34-17. LAC generated +27.2 EPA (+0.446 per play) vs DAL's +1.9 EPA (+0.034 per play).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

Q.Johnston 50-yard gain (Q3, 29:13). LAC's win probability jumped from 59.8% to 73.9% — a 14.1 percentage point swing.

A -yard gain moved the chains and shifted field position while leading by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

LAC 16-play, 81-yard drive (7:49) ending in touchdown (Q2, 08:08). LAC's win probability moved from 41.3% to 65.6% — a 24.4 percentage point shift over 16 plays.

LAC took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.077): (:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen to DAL 1 for 12 yards (7-T.Diggs).

Key play (WPA +0.058): (5:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith pushed ob at LAC 42 for 10 yards Key play (WPA +0.058): (:22) 64-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to LAC, who lost 30.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why LAC Won

LAC won 34-17 on the strength of 5 key factors: • LAC generated +27.2 EPA (+0.446 per play) vs DAL's +1.9 EPA (+0.034 per play) • LAC rushing EPA: +3.5 vs DAL: -11.7 • LAC scored on 6/8 drives (75%) vs DAL's 3/9 (33%).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for DAL

DAL lost 17-34. What went wrong: • DAL's defense allowed LAC to score on 6/8 drives (75%) • DAL failed on 5/9 third downs (44% conversion rate) • DAL rushing attack generated -11.7 EPA.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: LAC 16-play, 81-yard drive (7:49) ending in touchdown (Q2, 08:08). The moment that decided it: Q.Johnston 50-yard gain (Q3, 29:13).

Final score: LAC 34-17.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

LAC Play #2116 Drive #6 epa advantage rushing advantage scoring drive rate defensive leakage third down failures rushing struggles

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.