HOU hold off JAX 36-29
HOU held off JAX 36-29. HOU generated +5.3 EPA (+0.074 per play) vs JAX's -13.2 EPA (-0.236 per play). The defining moment: D.Mills 14-yard rushing TD (Q4, 0:37).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: D.Mills 14-yard rushing TD (Q4, 0:37) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: HOU generated +5.3 EPA (+0.074 per play) vs JAX's -13.2 EPA (-0.236 per play) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: JAX failed on 7/11 third downs (36% conversion rate) why loser lost
HOU held off JAX 36-29. HOU generated +5.3 EPA (+0.074 per play) vs JAX's -13.2 EPA (-0.236 per play).
The defining moment: D.Mills 14-yard rushing TD (Q4, 0:37).
⚡ The Turning Point
D.Mills 14-yard rushing TD (Q4, 0:37). HOU's win probability jumped from 40.9% to 70.7% — a 29.8 percentage point swing.
Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while trailing by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
JAX 3-play, -1-yard drive (0:31) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q4, 00:31). JAX's win probability moved from 39.2% to 25.9% — a 39.2 percentage point shift over 3 plays.
JAX's drive ended in a turnover that was returned for a touchdown by the opponent. Key play (WPA -0.259): (:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 30 for -5 yards (51-W.Anderson).
FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) Key play (WPA -0.099): (:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at HOU 43 for 12 yards ( Key play (WPA +0.074): (:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at JAX 45 for 21 yards (11-T.Smith).
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to HOU, who gained 37.2 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 29.8 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.
✅ Why HOU Won
HOU won 36-29 on the strength of 5 key factors: • HOU generated +5.3 EPA (+0.074 per play) vs JAX's -13.2 EPA (-0.236 per play) • HOU converted 10/15 third downs (67%) vs JAX's 4/11 (36%) • HOU rushing EPA: +4.5 vs JAX: -5.9.
❌ What Went Wrong for JAX
JAX lost 29-36. What went wrong: • JAX failed on 7/11 third downs (36% conversion rate) • JAX committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost) • JAX allowed 5 sacks.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: JAX 3-play, -1-yard drive (0:31) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q4, 00:31). The moment that decided it: D.Mills 14-yard rushing TD (Q4, 0:37).
Final score: HOU 36-29.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.