SEA hold off IND, win 18-16 on late field goal
SEA edged IND 18-16. SEA had 3 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs IND's 0. The defining moment: SEA 56-yard field goal (Q4, 0:22).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: SEA 56-yard field goal (Q4, 0:22) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: SEA had 3 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs IND's 0 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: IND failed on 8/13 third downs (38% conversion rate) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 3 lead changes momentum timeline
SEA edged IND 18-16. SEA had 3 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs IND's 0.
The defining moment: SEA 56-yard field goal (Q4, 0:22).
⚡ The Turning Point
SEA 56-yard field goal (Q4, 0:22). SEA's win probability jumped from 43.9% to 77.5% — a 33.6 percentage point swing.
Points on the board while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
SEA 5-play, 25-yard drive (0:29) ending in field goal (Q4, 00:47). SEA's win probability moved from 40.2% to 77.5% — a 37.3 percentage point shift over 5 plays.
SEA took the lead with a field goal. Key play (WPA +0.336): (:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Key play (WPA +0.142): (:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 22-R.Shaheed to IND 46 for 17 yards (35-J.Edwards). Key play (WPA -0.073): (:29) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold spiked the ball to stop the clock.
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 3 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to IND, who lost 35.2 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 33.6 percentage points, caused by a field goal.
✅ Why SEA Won
SEA won 18-16 on the strength of 5 key factors: • SEA had 3 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs IND's 0 • SEA had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs IND's -1 • SEA passing EPA: +4.6 vs IND: -2.5.
❌ What Went Wrong for IND
IND lost 16-18. What went wrong: • IND failed on 8/13 third downs (38% conversion rate) • IND's defense allowed SEA to score on 6/11 drives (55%) • IND had only 0 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs SEA's 3.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: SEA 5-play, 25-yard drive (0:29) ending in field goal (Q4, 00:47). The moment that decided it: SEA 56-yard field goal (Q4, 0:22).
Final score: SEA 18-16.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.