HOU win 16-13 on late field goal over TEN
HOU edged TEN 16-13. HOU had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs TEN's -1. The defining moment: HOU 35-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: HOU 35-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: HOU had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs TEN's -1 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: TEN failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) why loser lost
HOU edged TEN 16-13. HOU had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs TEN's -1.
The defining moment: HOU 35-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02).
⚡ The Turning Point
HOU 35-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02). HOU's win probability jumped from 78.7% to 100.0% — a 21.3 percentage point swing.
Points on the board while tied late.
🏈 Drive of the Game
TEN 11-play, 95-yard drive (3:22) ending in touchdown (Q4, 04:57). TEN's win probability moved from 14.6% to 44.3% — a 29.7 percentage point shift over 11 plays.
TEN tied the game after trailing. Key play (WPA +0.205): (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo ran ob at HOU 7 for 39 yards [55-D.Hunter].
Key play (WPA +0.096): (1:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 11-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key play (WPA +0.069): (2:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles up the middle to HOU 45 for 20 yards (4-K.Lassiter).
PENALTY on .
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to HOU, who lost 33.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 21.3 percentage points, caused by a field goal.
✅ Why HOU Won
HOU won 16-13 on the strength of 3 key factors: • HOU had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs TEN's -1 • TEN had 5 three-and-outs vs HOU's 3 • HOU generated -4.5 EPA (-0.066 per play) vs TEN's -6.8 EPA (-0.120 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for TEN
TEN lost 13-16. What went wrong: • TEN failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) • TEN went three-and-out 5 times, failing to sustain drives • TEN allowed 3 sacks.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: TEN 11-play, 95-yard drive (3:22) ending in touchdown (Q4, 04:57). The moment that decided it: HOU 35-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02).
Final score: HOU 16-13.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.