LAC survive DEN challenge, win 23-20
LAC edged DEN 23-20. LAC converted 8/17 third downs (47%) vs DEN's 2/13 (15%). The defining moment: J.Herbert to K.Allen, 20-yard TD (Q4, 2:44).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: J.Herbert to K.Allen, 20-yard TD (Q4, 2:44) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: LAC converted 8/17 third downs (47%) vs DEN's 2/13 (15%) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: DEN failed on 11/13 third downs (15% conversion rate) why loser lost
LAC edged DEN 23-20. LAC converted 8/17 third downs (47%) vs DEN's 2/13 (15%).
The defining moment: J.Herbert to K.Allen, 20-yard TD (Q4, 2:44).
⚡ The Turning Point
J.Herbert to K.Allen, 20-yard TD (Q4, 2:44). LAC's win probability jumped from 30.0% to 49.0% — a 19.1 percentage point swing.
Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while trailing by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
LAC 7-play, 76-yard drive (2:31) ending in touchdown (Q4, 05:08). LAC's win probability moved from 17.7% to 50.0% — a 32.2 percentage point shift over 7 plays.
LAC tied the game after trailing. Key play (WPA +0.191): (2:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-N.Bonitto].
Key play (WPA +0.127): (3:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 8-O.Hampton to DEN 24 for 22 yards (29- Key play (WPA +0.085): (4:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LAC 35 for 11 yards (9-T.Hufanga). .
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to LAC, who gained 49.7 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 19.1 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.
✅ Why LAC Won
LAC won 23-20 on the strength of 3 key factors: • LAC converted 8/17 third downs (47%) vs DEN's 2/13 (15%) • DEN had 6 three-and-outs vs LAC's 3 • LAC scored on 5/12 drives (42%) vs DEN's 3/11 (27%).
❌ What Went Wrong for DEN
DEN lost 20-23. What went wrong: • DEN failed on 11/13 third downs (15% conversion rate) • DEN went three-and-out 6 times, failing to sustain drives.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: LAC 7-play, 76-yard drive (2:31) ending in touchdown (Q4, 05:08). The moment that decided it: J.Herbert to K.Allen, 20-yard TD (Q4, 2:44).
Final score: LAC 23-20.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.