DAL hold off WAS 30-23
DAL held off WAS 30-23. DAL converted 8/20 third downs (40%) vs WAS's 1/6 (17%). The defining moment: J.Croskey-Merritt 72-yard rushing TD (Q3, 24:44).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: J.Croskey-Merritt 72-yard rushing TD (Q3, 24:44) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: DAL converted 8/20 third downs (40%) vs WAS's 1/6 (17%) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: WAS's defense allowed DAL to score on 6/9 drives (67%) why loser lost
DAL held off WAS 30-23. DAL converted 8/20 third downs (40%) vs WAS's 1/6 (17%).
The defining moment: J.Croskey-Merritt 72-yard rushing TD (Q3, 24:44).
⚡ The Turning Point
J.Croskey-Merritt 72-yard rushing TD (Q3, 24:44). WAS's win probability jumped from 12.6% to 25.7% — a 13.1 percentage point swing.
Extended or established the lead while trailing by 14.
🏈 Drive of the Game
DAL 13-play, 78-yard drive (5:18) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). DAL's win probability moved from 43.3% to 61.4% — a 18.1 percentage point shift over 13 plays.
DAL took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.082): (13:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to DAL 48 for 4 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
Key play (WPA +0.069): (12:28) (Shotgun) 43-M.Davis right guard to WAS 31 for 21 yards (20-Q.Martin). Key play (WPA +0.065): (11:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at WAS 7 for 19 yards (3-W.H.
📈 Game Flow
A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to DAL, who lost 23.7 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
✅ Why DAL Won
DAL won 30-23 on the strength of 5 key factors: • DAL converted 8/20 third downs (40%) vs WAS's 1/6 (17%) • DAL generated +18.5 EPA (+0.213 per play) vs WAS's +7.9 EPA (+0.197 per play) • DAL passing EPA: +11.7 vs WAS: +4.4.
❌ What Went Wrong for WAS
WAS lost 23-30. What went wrong: • WAS's defense allowed DAL to score on 6/9 drives (67%).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: DAL 13-play, 78-yard drive (5:18) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). The moment that decided it: J.Croskey-Merritt 72-yard rushing TD (Q3, 24:44).
Final score: DAL 30-23.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.