Skip to content
Sportami home
NFL 2025 Season Week 5

DAL pull away from NYJ 37-22

DAL pulled away from NYJ 37-22. DAL generated +20.1 EPA (+0.360 per play) vs NYJ's +0.9 EPA (+0.012 per play).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: R.Flournoy 40-yard gain (Q1, 51:34) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: DAL generated +20.1 EPA (+0.360 per play) vs NYJ's +0.9 EPA (+0.012 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: NYJ failed on 9/16 third downs (44% conversion rate) why loser lost

DAL pulled away from NYJ 37-22. DAL generated +20.1 EPA (+0.360 per play) vs NYJ's +0.9 EPA (+0.012 per play).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

R.Flournoy 40-yard gain (Q1, 51:34). DAL's win probability jumped from 40.0% to 54.2% — a 14.2 percentage point swing.

A -yard gain moved the chains and shifted field position while trailing by a field goal.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

DAL 13-play, 90-yard drive (6:10) ending in touchdown (Q1, 02:50). DAL's win probability moved from 46.8% to 68.0% — a 21.2 percentage point shift over 13 plays.

DAL took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.099): (14:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 40-H.Luepke to NYJ 37 for 10 yards (44-J.Sherwood) Key play (WPA +0.069): (11:48) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Key play (WPA +0.064): (:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to NYJ 47 for 14 yards (55-B.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to DAL, who lost 34.3 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why DAL Won

DAL won 37-22 on the strength of 5 key factors: • DAL generated +20.1 EPA (+0.360 per play) vs NYJ's +0.9 EPA (+0.012 per play) • DAL rushing EPA: +8.3 vs NYJ: -3.5 • DAL generated 5 sacks and 13 QB hits vs NYJ's 1 sacks and 3 QB hits.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for NYJ

NYJ lost 22-37. What went wrong: • NYJ failed on 9/16 third downs (44% conversion rate) • NYJ allowed 5 sacks • NYJ's defense allowed DAL to score on 6/12 drives (50%).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: DAL 13-play, 90-yard drive (6:10) ending in touchdown (Q1, 02:50). The moment that decided it: R.Flournoy 40-yard gain (Q1, 51:34).

Final score: DAL 37-22.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

DAL Play #505 Drive #4 epa advantage rushing advantage pressure third down failures pressure allowed defensive leakage

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.