SF outlast CHI 42-38 after 2 lead changes
SF held off CHI 42-38. SF scored on 5/5 red zone trips (100%) vs CHI's 2/3 (67%). The defining moment: CHI pass (Q4, 0:04).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: CHI pass (Q4, 0:04) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: SF scored on 5/5 red zone trips (100%) vs CHI's 2/3 (67%) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: CHI's defense allowed SF to score on 7/10 drives (70%) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 2 lead changes momentum timeline
SF held off CHI 42-38. SF scored on 5/5 red zone trips (100%) vs CHI's 2/3 (67%).
The defining moment: CHI pass (Q4, 0:04).
⚡ The Turning Point
CHI pass (Q4, 0:04). CHI's win probability dropped from 46.5% to 0.0% — a 46.5 percentage point swing.
A key completion sustained the drive while trailing by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
SF 7-play, 75-yard drive (3:07) ending in touchdown (Q4, 05:22). SF's win probability moved from 39.6% to 75.3% — a 35.8 percentage point shift over 7 plays.
SF took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.250): (2:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.102): (3:14) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CHI 38 for 18 yards (98-M.Sweat; 9 Key play (WPA +0.054): (3:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 88-J.Tonges. PENALTY on CHI-99-G.Dexter, .
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 2 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to SF, who gained 50.0 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 46.5 percentage points, caused by a play sequence.
✅ Why SF Won
SF won 42-38 on the strength of 4 key factors: • SF scored on 5/5 red zone trips (100%) vs CHI's 2/3 (67%) • SF converted 7/10 third downs (70%) vs CHI's 6/12 (50%) • SF scored on 7/10 drives (70%) vs CHI's 5/9 (56%).
❌ What Went Wrong for CHI
CHI lost 38-42. What went wrong: • CHI's defense allowed SF to score on 7/10 drives (70%) • CHI failed to score on 1 of 3 red zone trips (67% scoring rate).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: SF 7-play, 75-yard drive (3:07) ending in touchdown (Q4, 05:22). The moment that decided it: CHI pass (Q4, 0:04).
Final score: SF 42-38.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.