Skip to content
Sportami home
NFL 2025 Season Week 10

MIA pull away from BUF 30-13

MIA pulled away from BUF 30-13. MIA scored on 1/1 red zone trips (100%) vs BUF's 0/1 (0%).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: T.Tagovailoa to J.Waddle, 38-yard TD (Q2, 45:00) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: MIA scored on 1/1 red zone trips (100%) vs BUF's 0/1 (0%) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: BUF committed 3 turnovers (1 INT, 2 fumbles lost) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: one-sided — the winner controlled throughout momentum timeline

MIA pulled away from BUF 30-13. MIA scored on 1/1 red zone trips (100%) vs BUF's 0/1 (0%).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

T.Tagovailoa to J.Waddle, 38-yard TD (Q2, 45:00). MIA's win probability jumped from 76.4% to 84.7% — a 8.4 percentage point swing.

Extended or established the lead while leading by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

MIA 12-play, 92-yard drive (7:27) ending in touchdown (Q1, 12:16). MIA's win probability moved from 52.7% to 69.8% — a 17.1 percentage point shift over 12 plays.

MIA took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.076): (7:24) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right tackle pushed ob at BUF 35 for 15 yards (24-C.Bishop).

PENALTY on.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a one-sided affair. The winning team controlled the game from start to finish.

The longest sustained momentum belonged to MIA, who gained 21.7 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why MIA Won

MIA won 30-13 on the strength of 5 key factors: • MIA scored on 1/1 red zone trips (100%) vs BUF's 0/1 (0%) • MIA generated +15.9 EPA (+0.312 per play) vs BUF's -4.9 EPA (-0.074 per play) • MIA rushing EPA: +6.9 vs BUF: -9.0.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for BUF

BUF lost 13-30. What went wrong: • BUF committed 3 turnovers (1 INT, 2 fumbles lost) • BUF failed on 10/15 third downs (33% conversion rate) • BUF's defense allowed MIA to score on 5/11 drives (46%).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: MIA 12-play, 92-yard drive (7:27) ending in touchdown (Q1, 12:16). The moment that decided it: T.Tagovailoa to J.Waddle, 38-yard TD (Q2, 45:00).

Final score: MIA 30-13.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

MIA Play #861 Drive #3 red zone efficiency epa advantage rushing advantage turnovers committed third down failures defensive leakage

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.