ATL hold off TB, win 29-28 on late field goal
ATL edged TB 29-28. ATL generated +14.6 EPA (+0.217 per play) vs TB's +3.4 EPA (+0.055 per play). The defining moment: ATL 43-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: ATL 43-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: ATL generated +14.6 EPA (+0.217 per play) vs TB's +3.4 EPA (+0.055 per play) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: TB failed on 5/9 third downs (44% conversion rate) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 3 lead changes momentum timeline
ATL edged TB 29-28. ATL generated +14.6 EPA (+0.217 per play) vs TB's +3.4 EPA (+0.055 per play).
The defining moment: ATL 43-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).
⚡ The Turning Point
ATL 43-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04). ATL's win probability jumped from 54.1% to 100.0% — a 45.9 percentage point swing.
Points on the board while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
ATL 9-play, 45-yard drive (1:49) ending in field goal (Q4, 01:49). ATL's win probability moved from 33.3% to 54.1% — a 66.7 percentage point shift over 9 plays.
ATL added points with a field goal. Key play (WPA +0.459): (:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Key play (WPA +0.308): (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (31-A.Wi Key play (WPA -0.108): (1:44) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at ATL 39 for -8 yards (5-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (5-H.Reddick) [5-.
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 3 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to TB, who gained 41.5 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 45.9 percentage points, caused by a field goal.
✅ Why ATL Won
ATL won 29-28 on the strength of 4 key factors: • ATL generated +14.6 EPA (+0.217 per play) vs TB's +3.4 EPA (+0.055 per play) • ATL generated 5 sacks and 6 QB hits vs TB's 1 sacks and 4 QB hits • ATL passing EPA: +12.3 vs TB: +4.4.
❌ What Went Wrong for TB
TB lost 28-29. What went wrong: • TB failed on 5/9 third downs (44% conversion rate) • TB allowed 5 sacks • TB's defense allowed ATL to score on 5/10 drives (50%).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: ATL 9-play, 45-yard drive (1:49) ending in field goal (Q4, 01:49). The moment that decided it: ATL 43-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).
Final score: ATL 29-28.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.