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NFL 2025 Season Week 15

HOU pull away from ARI 40-20

HOU pulled away from ARI 40-20. HOU passing EPA: +14.9 vs ARI: -1.8.

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: C.Stroud to N.Collins, 57-yard TD (Q1, 59:21) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: HOU passing EPA: +14.9 vs ARI: -1.8 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: ARI failed on 7/12 third downs (42% conversion rate) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: one-sided — the winner controlled throughout momentum timeline

HOU pulled away from ARI 40-20. HOU passing EPA: +14.9 vs ARI: -1.8.

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

C.Stroud to N.Collins, 57-yard TD (Q1, 59:21). HOU's win probability jumped from 56.2% to 69.8% — a 13.6 percentage point swing.

Extended or established the lead while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

ARI 0-play, 10-yard drive (0:08) ending in field goal (Q1, 14:11). ARI's win probability moved from 30.1% to 77.1% — a 10.3 percentage point shift over 0 plays.

ARI took the lead with a field goal. Key play (WPA -0.087): 15-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to ARI 1.

86-J.Brooks to ARI 28 for 27 yards (56-J.Hill). .

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a one-sided affair. The winning team controlled the game from start to finish.

The longest sustained momentum belonged to HOU, who gained 30.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why HOU Won

HOU won 40-20 on the strength of 5 key factors: • HOU passing EPA: +14.9 vs ARI: -1.8 • HOU generated +14.9 EPA (+0.248 per play) vs ARI's +0.8 EPA (+0.012 per play) • HOU scored on 7/10 drives (70%) vs ARI's 3/10 (30%).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for ARI

ARI lost 20-40. What went wrong: • ARI failed on 7/12 third downs (42% conversion rate) • ARI's defense allowed HOU to score on 7/10 drives (70%) • ARI committed 1 turnover (1 INT, 0 fumbles lost).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: ARI 0-play, 10-yard drive (0:08) ending in field goal (Q1, 14:11). The moment that decided it: C.Stroud to N.Collins, 57-yard TD (Q1, 59:21).

Final score: HOU 40-20.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

HOU Play #91 Drive #2 passing advantage epa advantage scoring drive rate third down failures defensive leakage turnovers committed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.