CIN rout ARI 37-14
CIN dominated ARI 37-14. CIN generated +23.8 EPA (+0.340 per play) vs ARI's -2.5 EPA (-0.045 per play).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: J.Brissett to M.Wilson, 38-yard TD (Q2, 41:54) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: CIN generated +23.8 EPA (+0.340 per play) vs ARI's -2.5 EPA (-0.045 per play) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: ARI failed on 10/13 third downs (23% conversion rate) why loser lost
CIN dominated ARI 37-14. CIN generated +23.8 EPA (+0.340 per play) vs ARI's -2.5 EPA (-0.045 per play).
⚡ The Turning Point
J.Brissett to M.Wilson, 38-yard TD (Q2, 41:54). ARI's win probability jumped from 17.5% to 29.6% — a 12.1 percentage point swing.
Extended or established the lead while trailing by 13.
🏈 Drive of the Game
CIN 12-play, 72-yard drive (5:43) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). CIN's win probability moved from 54.6% to 69.9% — a 15.3 percentage point shift over 12 plays.
CIN took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.121): (12:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 1-J.Chase to ARI 24 for 22 yards (0-W.Johnson).
Key play (WPA +0.075): (14:11) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-T.Hudson to CIN 43 for 13 yards (30-D.Hall).
📈 Game Flow
A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to CIN, who gained 30.6 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
✅ Why CIN Won
CIN won 37-14 on the strength of 5 key factors: • CIN generated +23.8 EPA (+0.340 per play) vs ARI's -2.5 EPA (-0.045 per play) • CIN converted 10/14 third downs (71%) vs ARI's 3/13 (23%) • CIN passing EPA: +18.6 vs ARI: -0.8.
❌ What Went Wrong for ARI
ARI lost 14-37. What went wrong: • ARI failed on 10/13 third downs (23% conversion rate) • ARI's defense allowed CIN to score on 6/10 drives (60%) • ARI went three-and-out 5 times, failing to sustain drives.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: CIN 12-play, 72-yard drive (5:43) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). The moment that decided it: J.Brissett to M.Wilson, 38-yard TD (Q2, 41:54).
Final score: CIN 37-14.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.